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White text on purple background: Interest Rates Predicted to Remain Close to 4% in 2024

Four out of ten (39%) Financial Services industry leaders predict the main European Central Bank interest rate will be 3.5 to 4% at the end of 2024, according to our latest survey. 37% believe the main ECB rate will be 4%+, while 22% said 3 to 3.5%.

The survey was carried out at our Financial Services Insights event, which took place at The Round Room of the Mansion House, Dublin, and attracted 500 industry leaders. The event focused on current global political tensions, their potential macro-financial effects and the path forward for Ireland’s financial services sector in a time of change and challenge.

One-third (33%) of respondents said that the re-election of Donald Trump is the biggest medium-term threat to global security. 25% were most concerned about authoritarian China and potential conflict over Taiwan, while 22% said that climate change presented the biggest threat. 20% believe that Russia continuing the land war in Europe will be the biggest cause of geopolitical instability.

Alastair Campbell, political commentator and co-host of The Rest is Politics podcast, delivered a keynote address at the event and said: “I cannot recall a time when so many major geopolitical and geo-strategic issues were creating such a difficult environment for decision makers. The current crisis in the Middle East is but the latest with the potential to affect all of us in large ways and small. The climate crisis, AI, the seeming rise of autocracy and the fear that Trump could return to the White House, economic nationalism, the war in Ukraine, a succession of coups across Africa … there is certainly a lot to talk about and it is a pleasure to do so with so many important Irish business voices.”

Populism isn’t about what is popular; instead it is a form of politics that sees a problem as something to be exploited instead of something to be solved.

The survey also found that more than 4 out of 10 (42%) Financial Services leaders believe the UK will be back in the European Union by 2040, indicating that the question of the UK's long-term relationship with the EU remains unsettled in the minds of many.

Alastair Campbell commented: “Populism isn’t about what is popular; instead it is a form of politics that sees a problem as something to be exploited instead of something to be solved. Nobody now thinks Brexit is going well. So I think at some point it has to be fixed. I hope we get back into the European Union at some point. I think leaving was the biggest act of self-destructive folly. But I look at the European Union now and I think the question is also, what sort of European Union are we talking about?”

Commenting on the event, Neil Campbell, Partner and Head of Financial Services, said: "Our Financial Services lawyers are deeply cognisant of the geopolitical issues shaping both the sector and the nation at large. This event is an opportunity for industry leaders to reflect not only on the broader macroeconomic factors at play, but also the critical leadership qualities required in these turbulent times, and the path forward for Ireland’s Financial Services sector amidst these evolving dynamics.”

Read more about the survey results in the Irish Times, or find out more about our Financial Services team.

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Neil Campbell

Partner, Head of Financial Services

 +353 86 411 6458